Climate signals,
without the noise.

Models built on open data by Dr Ben McNeil.

Key Metrics
Global CO₂ Forecast — 2026
38.1GtCO₂/yr
Most Likely Warming — 2100
2.3°C
Closest IPCC Scenario
SSP4-3.4
Dashboards
Carbon Forecasting
Global CO₂ Emissions Forecast 2025–2050
Four independent models — growth rate extrapolation, Gaussian process regression, and two rolling quadratic methods — project global fossil CO₂ through 2050. Ensemble median quantifies trajectory uncertainty.
Climate Forecasting
Most Likely Warming by 2100
50,000 Monte Carlo simulations across equilibrium climate sensitivity and plausible emissions pathways yield a warming probability distribution — not a single worst-case projection.
Warming probability distribution — 2100
Lower bound (p17) 1.7°C
Most likely (median) 2.3°C
Upper bound (p83) 2.9°C
P(≤1.5°C) Paris target < 5%
Scenario Tracking
Closest IPCC Scenario Tracker
Which Shared Socioeconomic Pathway does the current global emissions trajectory most closely match? Tracks alignment between observed CO₂ and each SSP pathway — updated annually with GCB data.
Ensemble scenario probability
SSP4-3.4 65%
SSP2-4.5 35%
All other scenarios 0%
Emmi
Institutional Grade Climate Data
Comprehensive climate risk data for companies and investors
Emmi provides financed emissions data and climate risk analysis across all major public and private asset classes globally. Available via our standalone APIs or integrated with Snowflake and FactSet, our advanced climate analytics is usable across any workflow.
Financed Emissions Physical Risk Transition Risk Snowflake FactSet API
Get climate signals when new forecasts drop
Quantitative updates from Dr Ben McNeil — new data, model updates, and findings on CO₂, warming, and carbon markets.
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