Temperature Outcomes by 2100
Most Likely Warming Trajectory: Now → 2050 → 2100
Most Likely Global Temperature Pathway
Temperature Probability Distribution
Temperature Distribution by 2100
Four statistical forecast methods · 50,000 Monte Carlo samples each · Piecewise linear interpolation between SSP cumulative CO₂ anchor points
Climate Scenario Probabilities
| Forecast Method |
Temp °C |
90% CI |
SSP1-1.9 |
SSP1-2.6 |
SSP4-3.4 |
SSP2-4.5 |
SSP4-6.0 |
SSP3-7.0 |
SSP5-8.5 |
Cumulative CO₂ vs Temperature
Cumulative Fossil CO₂ (2000—2050) vs Implied Temperature by 2100
Sources: Global Carbon Budget 2025 v0.7 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025) · RCMIP Phase 3 Emissions v1.0.0 (Nicholls et al., 2020) · IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM Table 1
Method: Medium-term warming is strongly determined by cumulative CO₂ in the atmosphere.
The warming distributions shown here are derived from the most likely cumulative CO₂ trajectories produced by four statistical forecast methods —
for a full breakdown of those methods and their scenario probabilities, see the
Scenario Tracker.
Each method generates 50,000 Monte Carlo samples; cumulative totals are mapped to temperature via piecewise linear interpolation between RCMIP SSP anchor points,
with AR6 climate sensitivity uncertainty applied throughout. Analysis considers fossil CO₂ only.
globalcarbonbudget.org