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Key Metrics
2025 Observations
— GtCO₂
Individual Method Projections — 2050
Structural Deceleration in Emissions Growth
Annual CO₂ Emissions Graph — Four Carbon Emissions Forecast Methods
Global CO₂ Data — Method Envelope & Median Trajectory
Method Comparison
| Method |
Approach |
Peak Year |
2050 Central (GtCO₂) |
95% CI |
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Sources:
Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025) for 2000–2025 observed fossil CO₂ ·
RCMIP Phase 3 Emissions v1.0.0 (
Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes, World region) ·
IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 STEPS for reference benchmark ·
globalcarbonbudget.org
Methods:
COVID years 2020–2021 excluded from all regression training ·
Recency weighting: 5× for 2022–2025, 2× for 2010–2019, 1× earlier ·
95% CI via bootstrap (2,000 resamples) for Growth Rate Extrapolation; Bayesian posterior std for RW-Quad methods ·
Gaussian Process: Matérn ν=2.5 kernel, sklearn GaussianProcessRegressor ·
All cumulative totals via trapezoidal integration ·
RCMIP historical (2000–2024) spliced with GCB observed before scenario branch at 2025.
Note: These are statistical extrapolations, not policy forecasts.
Real outcomes depend on policy, technology, geopolitics and economic cycles.
RCMIP SSP scenarios use different IAMs (IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, GCAM4, AIM/CGE, REMIND-MAGPIE).